What was supposed to be a homecoming celebration fight for Charles Oliveira suddenly feels like it has a lot more on the line.
“Do Bronx” was originally scheduled to fight Rafael Fiziev in Saturday’s UFC Rio main event, and while Fiziev is no pushover by any stretch, his replacement, Mateusz Gamrot, presents a different stylistic challenge and seems even more eager to play spoiler. Oliveira has never lost in Brazil and now, just four months after being brutally knocked out by Ilia Topuria, would be an awful time to see that trend ruined.
It’s a risky fight for Gamrot, too, though a risk he had to take. The sting of a streak-busting loss to Dan Hooker still lingers despite Gamrot having already gotten back on the winning track, and he’s well-aware the opportunity to knock off a former UFC champion still occupying a top 5 ranking doesn’t come along too often. A loss likely relegates to the realm of the also-rans, but victory could move him within range of the title shot he’s been chasing for so long.
The co-main event features a similar storyline, with former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo hanging on to his bantamweight title hopes despite two straight losses, and Montel Jackson finally getting the opportunity to add an elite name to his résumé.
In other main card action, Vicente Luque welcomes Joel Alvarez to the welterweight division, heavyweights Jhonata Diniz and Mario Pinto go knockout hunting, and featherweights Ricardo Ramos and Kaan Ofli look to start the show with a bang.
Where: Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro
When: Saturday, Oct. 11. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Charles Oliveira (4, P4P-19) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (9)
Did I mention Charles Oliveira has never lost in Brazil?
Yes, Oliveira turns 36 next week, and in fight years it feels like he’s about to turn 50 having grown up in front of our very eyes. Fifteen years ago, Oliveira made his UFC debut as a 20-year-old featherweight with enormously high expectations and despite the rockiest of roads, he somehow met and arguably surpassed them. He remains one of the most exciting fighters in the history of a division packed with future Hall of Famers.
Is the chin gone? One has to ask, was it ever really there? Oliveira has been getting knocked down and made to get back up again since his first walk to the octagon. Remember “Charles Oliveira can’t overcome adversity?” There’s a golden oldie. Ilia Topuria won’t be the last fighter to rock Oliveira. It could happen tonight.
Mateusz Gamrot is known for his grappling, but he’s never shied away from striking and he has plenty of power in those hands. The Oliveira that walked in to Topuria’s fists will fall just the same if he employs that strategy against Gamrot. And I see this as a standup fight, with the fighters neutralizing each other in the wrestling and submission game. So throwing hands it is.
Even then, I like Oliveira’s chances. Yeah, he gets hit, but so does Gamrot, and Oliveira has put plenty of opponents on their butts with his aggressive striking style. Precedent is going to be set and it won’t be Oliveira suffering a Brazilian blemish, but rather Gamrot losing inside the distance for the first time.
Make it 18-0 at home for Oliveira.
Deiveson Figueiredo (7) vs. Montel Jackson
Now if you want to count out a Brazilian veteran, well, Montel Jackson over Deiveson Figueiredo might be the way to go.
As My Best Friend Mike Heck so eloquently outlined on our preview show, based on betting value, Figueiredo is more than a sensible pick as a +260 underdog according to FanDuel. This is a former UFC champion whose only losses since moving to bantamweight are to Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. He’s faced far better competition than Jackson has and is, on paper, the toughest test yet for Jackson.
But all things even, I can’t pick against “Quik.” I’ve been on the Jackson bandwagon for a long time, preaching that if the 33-year-old could get his health on track and book the right opponents, he’d be fighting for a title. It took longer than a lot of us expected, but here he is, with the chance to claim a top 10 spot seven years after being signed off of Dana White’s Contender Series.
Jackson has so many physical advantages in this one. He’s taller, bulkier, an has over seven inches in reach over Figueiredo. Despite Figueiredo fighting up a weight class, I’m not even sure he has a speed advantage over Jackson. This is Jackson’s fight to lose, especially if it stays on the fight, where he will cook Figueiredo for three rounds or as long as it takes to knock out the two-time flyweight champ.
Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez
Joel Alvarez, it’s time to fulfill your welterweight destiny.
As mesmerizing as it has been to watch the 6-foot-3 (!!!) Alvarez shamble to the scale and occasionally make weight, then step into the octagon with a comical size advantage over his 155-pound opposition, this has always been the move for “El Fenomeno.” Is he a top 5 contender in this division? Who knows? But at least the man can enjoy a few more sandwiches during fight week.
For Vicente Luque, Father Time finally seems to be coming to collect his due. Every year we go into a Luque campaign saying, “He’s only 30” then “He’s only 31” then “He’s only 32” and so on. He turns 34 this November and has kept a steady schedule of fights for a decade. It’s clear to even the biggest Luque supporter that the wear has started to tear this fan favorite down.
That’s a horrible thought when you consider he’s dealing with an opponent who just so happens to have won all 22 of his fights by knockout or submission. Oh, and Luque’s last three losses? Also by knockout or submission. We can do the math here.
Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto
Time for some heavyweight optimism.
Jhonata Diniz and Mario Pinto are actually pretty good strikers as far as big boys go. Diniz comes from a kickboxing background and while that hasn’t translated into the most graceful performances in his MMA career so far, he’s still a work in progress, and I choose to believe (there’s that optimism) that he’s grown with each octagon outing.
Speaking of growing, at 26, Pinto is a relative baby on the heavyweight roster. He’s nowhere near a finished product, but he is blessed with that one-punch power the matchmakers love and if he can up his output to fill the space in between his home-run swings, the UFC could have something here.
I know I’m being way too safe with this pick, but I favor the technique of experience of Diniz to give him the edge here. Let’s just hope that Diniz’s defense doesn’t deter Pinto from taking risks, otherwise this could turn into a dreary three-round affair. Regardless, I’m picking Diniz.
Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli
As the level of Ricardo Ramos’s competition ramped up, his high-flying style has paid less dividends, but the matchmakers have lined up just the right opponent for him to get back to, as Dominick Cruz would put it, “reckless abandonment.”
That’s no disrespect to Ofli, who I actually (incorrectly) picked to win a recent season of The Ultimate Fighter. He’s a solid all-around fighter with some sneaky grappling in his back pocket, I’m just not confident he has the wrestling to impose his will on Ramos. He is a strong 145er so he could utilize some wall-and-stalling to frustrate Ramos, but I think that strategy can only take him so far.
The matchmakers want to start off the main card broadcast with thousands of roaring Rio fans rallying behind a highlight-reel knockout and that’s exactly what Ramos will deliver.
Michael Aswell def. Lucas Almeida
Jafel Filho def. Clayton Carpenter
Vitor Petrino def. Thomas Petersen
Bia Mesquita def. Irina Alekseeva
Stewart Nicoll def. Lucas Rocha
Julia Polastri def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Luan Lacerda def. Saimon Oliveira
Subscribe to my channel
