If Della Maddalena is going to win this fight, he will likely have to employ a similar strategy: avoid getting pinned in bad positions and get the fight back to distance. Makhachev is a good striker, but Della Maddalena is a very live underdog if he can establish distance striking for prolonged periods. Della Maddalena has recorded excellent striking volume, landing nearly seven significant strikes per minute. Della Maddalena has also displayed good striking defense, avoiding 64% of opponent significant strike attempts.
Ultimately, Makhachev’s offensive grappling will probably be too much for Della Maddalena to handle, even with Craig Jones in his corner. Della Maddalena has been taken down 10 times in his last two fights by fighters who have inferior wrestling to Makhachev. Look for Makhachev to get this fight to the ground and cover the -5.5 point spread with a finish or a comfortable decision win.
Pick: Islam Makhachev -5.5 Point Spread (-150)
Read about UFC Point Spread betting at DraftKings Network: How to Bet UFC Point Spreads on DraftKings Sportsbook
Makhachev has a history of being a strong fantasy scorer due to his grappling-heavy style combined with his ability to finish fights quickly. Makhachev’s control time percentage of 47% is strong and he has finished four of his last seven fights in the first round. Makhachev is close to a -300 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, making him a relatively safe fantasy play to build lineups around at his $9,200 price tag.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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