Israel Adesanya isn’t favored in return at UFC Seattle

January 17, 2026


Joe Pyfer is a betting favorite for his fight with former champion Israel Adesanya.

On Tuesday, UFC CEO Dana White announced that Adesanya and Pyfer will face off in the main event of UFC Seattle on March 28. It’s a huge opportunity for Pyfer to vault up the middleweight rankings, and when he steps into the cage that night, it appears he will do so as a betting favorite.

Earlier this morning, BetOnline released opening odds for the fight, setting the fight as a pick’em at -110 on each side. But after just a few hours, money has already come in on Pyfer, moving him to a small betting favorite over “The Last Stylebender.”

These odds suggest Pyfer has a 57 percent win probability, with Adesanya only at 47 percent.

This is only the second time Adesanya has been an underdog in his UFC career. For his first fight against Robert Whittaker, Adesanya opened as a small underdog, but moved to a slight favorite by fight time. Since then, he’s been a clear favorite in every fight in the octagon. However, Adesanya is currently on the worst run of his UFC career, having lost three consecutive fights, most recently getting knocked out by Nassourdine Imavov last February.

Pyfer, similarly, has never been an underdog in his UFC run. The Contender Series product is currently on a three-fight winning streak, most recently submitting Abus Magomedov at UFC 320.

UFC Seattle goes down on March 28 at Climate Pledge Arena, and will be co-main evented by a women’s flyweight bout between Alexa Grasso and Maycee Barber.



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