Jake Paul is finally doing what his critics have long asked for — fighting a legitimate boxer who isn’t well past his prime.
On Friday, Paul faces off with Anthony Joshua in a heavyweight boxing bout airing on Netflix. Originally intended to be a sideshow fight between Paul and the much smaller Gervonta Davis, legal issues for Davis upended that bout, and instead, Joshua stepped in, leading to something we’ve never seen before: Paul as an underdog.
Throughout his carefully cultivated boxing career, the former Disney star has never entered a fight as a serious underdog, but that changes on Saturday as Joshua, a former heavyweight champion still in his relative prime, appears to have every conceivable advantage in this bout.
So, why did Paul accept this fight, and what does a “victory” look like for him? Join MMA Fighting’s Jed Meshew, Damon Martin, and Alexander K. Lee as they look ahead to this weekend’s big fight.
1. What does a “win” look like for Paul?
Heck: In my opinion, Paul just stepping in here is a big win for him because he’s playing with house money. He’s expected to lose, and most certainly will.
For the sake of the question, if Paul can make it to the halfway point of the fight, it’s a massive victory. “Problem Child” has masterfully crafted his path to where he’s at now, but now he’s the one dealing with the size, strength, and boxing experience difference that most of his opponents have dealt with during the Paul era. Anthony Joshua is, by a billion miles, the toughest fight of Paul’s career, and likely will be for the entirety of it. Of course, Joshua is certainly not throwing 99 from the dish anymore, but still can juice it up to 94 after painting corners in the upper-80’s, low-90’s if he needs to. At some point, he is going to chin Paul and end the fight. But if it happens in Round 5 or higher, this is a massive win for Paul, and you can argue it’ll be a more impressive accomplishment than Joshua winning.
Martin: Does not getting obliterated inside two rounds count as a win?
I’ve said this several times since the fight was announced that it almost felt like Jake Paul got bullied into taking such a dangerous matchup after the eye-rolling reaction he got for booking a fight against a 135-pounder in Tank Davis. As much as Paul teased his interest in facing Anthony Joshua, it felt like this might be the kind of fight he’d try to land after the former heavyweight champion was hobbled by age and injuries.
Now that’s not to say Joshua is necessarily in his prime, but on his worst day, he should box circles around Paul, and that’s not even accounting for the nuclear power in his hands, where he’s delivered 25 knockouts in 28 wins over legitimate heavyweight competition.
Paul is not that. At all.
So a win here for Paul is just not getting folded in half inside two rounds like former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou. If he can avoid that kind of visual — maybe he gets TKO’d, or he actually survives to the fourth or fifth round before a stoppage — Paul has to view that as a massive victory. Then he can actually say he faced one of the best fighters in the world before calling out Evander Holyfield or Oscar De La Hoya as his next opponent.
Meshew: I hate to be the macabre one of the bunch (as I was for Paul vs. Tyson), but a win for Jake Paul on Friday is simply walking out of the ring without long-term, serious injury.
The old adage is that “you don’t play boxing,” but for whatever reason, it seems like people have forgotten that with the rise of influencer boxing. Because underneath all the spectacle, what happens on Friday is serious, dangerous business. Roughly 13 people die every year from boxing; those are the stakes. And while I don’t believe we’re at serious risk of that with this fight — Paul is young and seemingly healthy — it’s still on the table.
Paul is walking into the theater of combat against an opponent who outmatches him in every way. He has as much chance of beating Joshua as I do, which is to say, none. So, so long as he leaves Friday night with his head attached and his health mostly intact, Paul is a winner.
2. Why did Jake Paul choose this fight?
Meshew: This is a hard one to answer, but I’ve settled on one conclusion: it’s the best business decision.
The reality of the Jake Paul Boxing Experience (JPBE) is that it’s a charade. Paul is a competent boxer for someone who came to the sport late, but he’s not good in the context of even marginal boxing talents. But the underpinning of any athletic contest is always achievement, and as such, Paul is limited in how far he can go in boxing. Eventually, he will fight someone good, and when that happens, he will lose. Heck, he already lost to Tommy Fury, and Fury is decidedly not good.
But, like with professional wrestling, there’s losing, and there’s losing. Dropping a decision to some no-name club pro? That’s tough. But getting KOed by a former unified heavyweight champion that’s got 30 pounds on you? No one will hold that against you.
And that, ultimately, is what I think is happening here. Paul is a prize hog that’s being raised up for slaughter, but instead of sacrificing him to one big name, we’re trying to milk as much out of the JPBE as possible. After losing on Friday, Paul will come out and say that he “dared to be great,” and that “this is just another step on my journey to being a world champion,” and then he’ll go back to boxing MMA fighters for a bit, and the money wheel will just keep spinning.
Heck: For a lot of the reasons I mentioned above: It’s dangerous now, but not as dangerous as it would’ve been two years ago. He also originally was supposed to face Tank Davis in a fight — exhibition or not — that made absolutely no sense, and the meh-at-best reaction from the combat sports community said everything. At this point, again, it’s house money for Paul; he can’t lose anything from this, even if he gets obliterated in a minute. This is one of those “Dare to be great” things that actually works because it would be such a shock if he won.
Jed also lays out a perfect point about where his run is at, and the career, video game-esque damage bar level ride it has brought us on. It’s pay-off time to give the fans what they have invested so much of their time in.
Martin: It’s an overreaction to the Tank Davis fight, plain and simple.
That fight was a joke from the moment it was announced, and eventually, everybody involved realized that. Davis’ inability to avoid legal drama just gave Paul and his team at Most Valuable Promotions an easy out. That said, even being a foot taller and about 100 pounds heavier, Paul wasn’t guaranteed to beat Davis just based on the disparity in skill set.
Now Paul has to deal with — at worst — one of the five best heavyweights in boxing. Joshua may not be top of the food chain, but he knocked out Wladimir Klitschko and also holds wins over Dillian Whyte and Joseph Parker. He took Oleksandr Usyk to a split decision!
Paul wants to prove his legitimacy, but he might have to wait until after his jaw isn’t wired shut to tell the world about the experience.
3. Are you at all interested in Anderson Silva vs. Tyron Woodley on the undercard?
Martin: Yes, because these are exactly the kinds of fights Anderson Silva and Tyron Woodley should be taking if they want to continue competing.
It’s unlikely this is going to turn out to be some kind of boxing masterpiece, but nobody is expecting that. At his best, Silva is a pretty skilled boxer, and while age caught up to him in MMA, he doesn’t have to take nearly as much wear and tear on his body for this sport.
Meanwhile, Woodley deserves a fun fight like this after he basically gave Paul his platform by facing him twice in the past, which gave “The Problem Child” a pair of wins over a former UFC champion. Woodley still has gas left in the tank, and they always say power is the last thing to go — and he absolutely possesses the ability to separate Silva from consciousness.
As long as this fight doesn’t end in some sort of wild melee like Wanderlei Silva’s ill-fated move into boxing, then let these two legends have a go, and let’s just enjoy it while it lasts.
Meshew: Frankly, no. I mean, I guess this is better than them fighting real people, but I see no appeal in this, both from a spectacle standpoint and a nuts and bolts view.
Anderson Silva is 50 years old. I don’t need to see him continue to risk his body to satisfy my nostalgia. It’s Christmastime, I can just go watch The Santa Clause or something. And as for Woodley, do you know the last time Tyron Woodley won a fight? 2018! Drake’s “In My Feelings” was the No. 1 song in the country! The Nun was the No. 1 movie in the country. Joshua Van was still three years away from starting his MMA career!
This fight is probably going to be Anderson boxing up Woodley, but it also might devolve into two old guys not throwing punches, because both men also don’t put out a high pace. I genuinely find no interest in this bout, and don’t really understand why it’s happening. But hey, cash those checks, boys.
Heck: Sure, why the heck not?
Look, is this going to be a barnburner? Absolutely not. Will we go back and re-watch the entire thing in the future? Doubtful. But can it be kind of fun and nostalgic? Of course, and any time I get to watch Anderson Silva compete, I’m in.
Tyron Woodley has accomplished A LOT in this fight game, and he’s one of the best to ever do it in a weight class that has such a rich history. I don’t see any real motivation for Woodley here other than a paycheck. Woodley performed admirably in the first fight with Paul, but that second fight was one of the worst fights I’ve ever seen until Paul colded him. Woodley has a ton of irons in the fire, with fighting not really being one of them. I’d be surprised if Silva doesn’t win this one convincingly, and no matter how that looks — finish or decision — Silva will have a great time in there, and Woodley can say he competed with one of the, at worst, five best fighters in history.
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