In case you’ve been living under a rock for the past six months, UFC White House has been one of the biggest stories in MMA. Practically every major fighter currently under UFC contract, and some who aren’t, have thrown their hats in the ring to participate in what figures to be one of the biggest events in MMA history. And that includes the biggest fighter in MMA history.
Conor McGregor has not fought — well, not fought professionally, allegedly, he’s hit plenty of people — since 2021, when he shattered his leg against Dustin Poirier in their trilogy bout at UFC 264. But by all accounts, McGregor intends to change that this summer, planning a return to headline the UFC White House card.
When McGregor first announced his interest in the event, the assumption by most, including “Notorious,” was that he would fight Michael Chandler, who he was originally set to fight at UFC 303 before withdrawing from the event due to injury. But earlier this week, UFC CEO Dana White shot that down, saying McGregor-Chandler was “a couple of years ago.” That didn’t seem to bother McGregor, who almost immediately responded to White’s comments with an open invitation to whoever the promotion wants. Which leads us to the $1 million question: who should Conor McGregor fight, assuming he does return for UFC White House?
If there’s one thing I feel confident in when it comes to UFC matchmaking in 2026, it’s that the driving force behind everything is making the biggest and most marketable fights they can. There’s a reason Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett are fighting for the interim lightweight title and not Arman Tsarukyan, and whatever Dana White says, the answer isn’t that Arman headbutted Dan Hooker. The UFC has a new deal, and they want to come out swinging with the biggest, most broadly appealing fights possible. And while Michael Chandler makes some traditional sense — they coached against each other on The Ultimate Fighter, and Chandler is exciting and somewhat popular — it’s far from the biggest fight the promotion can put together right now.
So, with that as our guiding light, I think there are a few fights that make sense.
1. The winner of Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett
As mentioned, next week, Gaethje and Pimblett face off for the interim lightweight title in the main event of UFC 324. Ostensibly, the winner of that fight will go on to fight lightweight champion Ilia Topuria in a title unification bout. But is that likely to happen? Call me skeptical. Topuria is out for an unspecified amount of time, and seems to transparently not care about his lightweight title anyway. It would not surprise me in the least if Topuria simply chose not to return until he could come back at welterweight and continue his pursuit of Islam Makhachev. Which leaves the new interim champion open for business.
Regardless of who wins between Gaethje and Pimblett, a fight with McGregor would be massive. If Gaethje wins, McGregor vs. Gaethje is probably the single-most exciting fight in the history of the UFC, at least on paper. And if Pimblett wins, you have new Conor taking on old Conor, in a generational passing of the torch.
For the reasons mentioned above, this seems unlikely, but I figured it’s worth throwing in here anyway. While this would be the worst title shot given in the history of the UFC, this might also be the biggest of the possible fights, and one that, I suspect, Topuria would rush back for if offered.
3. The winner of Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira
In March, Holloway and Oliveira are fighting in the main event of UFC 326 for the “BMF” title, and in many ways, this is the perfect fight for McGregor to return to. McGregor has already shown interest in fighting for the “BMF” title, and unlike the two above fights, this wouldn’t be an egregious miscarriage of justice because the “BMF” title doesn’t really mean anything. And like with Gaethje or Pimblett, Conor vs. either Max (a second time) or Charles would be a guaranteed banger of a fight.
The biggest problem for this fight is that Conor is exceedingly unlikely to even be competitive with either guy, so is he/is the UFC interested in sacrificing him on the White House lawn? At least if the UFC is doing that with Paddy, they’re getting a big star in the aftermath. But neither Max nor Charles is gonna be around too much longer, so the ROI here is lacking.
If you had asked me about this six months ago, I’d have said there’s a zero percent chance this happens. But now? I’m up to like, five percent. Would this be a completely insane thing that makes a mockery of the sport? Absolutely. But it’s also the actual biggest fight the UFC can make right now — McGregor fighting for a third title against his greatest enemy. Sure, Makhachev would slaughter Conor, but that’s besides the point. The point is spectacle, and this is the biggest one.
This is simultaneously the most obvious choice and the longest shot of them all. McGregor and Diaz share the biggest rivalry in MMA history, a rivalry that is still unfinished. For years, it seemed like the UFC would finally pull the trigger on this fight, but then Conor semi-retired, and Nate left the promotion. Now, Nate isn’t even under contract. Could the UFC find a price to get him back and make this happen? Undoubtedly. But will they want to pay that price? I don’t know.
As you can see, there are no perfect choices for the UFC and McGregor. But there’s also no bad choice, either. At a baseline, Conor McGregor’s return will be the biggest thing that happens in MMA in 2026, should it happen. We’re just talking about varying degrees of massive. So given that, I think the most likely outcome is that McGregor challenges either Max Holloway or Charles Oliveira for the “BMF” belt.
The timeline fits perfectly, and it removes the winner of that fight from muddying up the rest of the lightweight title picture. Sure, McGregor will lose badly, but it will continue to add cache to the “BMF” title and keep it as its own thing. And if McGregor does somehow win, then he’s not holding up a “real” belt. Win-win.
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