UFC 325 takes place this Saturday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney with a featherweight title rematch that has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. This weekend, champion Alexander Volkanovski defends his title against Diego Lopes, the man he beat just 10 months ago to claim the vacant belt. While Lopes has at least picked up one win since then, this is Volkanovski’s first defense in his new reign as champion, and fans and fellow fighters have questioned why the UFC felt compelled to book a rematch of a fight that was not especially competitive the first time around.
Nevertheless, Volkanovski and Lopes run it back on Saturday, so let’s look at why the first fight was so one-sided for the champion, and how Lopes can adjust coming into the rematch.
Paths to victory for Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 325
I wrote about Volkanovski fighting Lopes just 10 months ago, where I predicted Volkanovski would win a wide unanimous decision with a vintage performance of out-striking and mixing in takedowns. Not gonna lie, I NAILED that one.
At 37 years old, Volkanovski is obviously not the best version of himself anymore, but he’s an all-time great fighter, and guys like that age gracefully, especially against a limited fighter like Lopes. Go watch it. Volkanovski delivers a masterclass.
In some respects, Volkanovski is the spiritual successor to Georges St-Pierre. He’s great-to-elite in every phase of MMA, and he uses his basic game to attack opponents where they are weakest. Volkanovski also has a smart team that has him prepared, and he’s one of the great mid-fight adjusters in the sport.
But against Lopes, he didn’t have to do that. Volkanovski simply used his footwork, mixed his attacks, and jabbed Lopes up for 25 minutes, limiting the opportunities for Lopes to catch him. It was the kind of consummate, veteran performance you see from someone like him, who knows he’s not at his peak anymore, so he has to be even more dialed in on the details. And it’s a performance he’s entirely capable of delivering again.
For Volkanovski, the key to this fight is to make it 25 minutes of the same. Move on angles, don’t get distracted, work the jab, and mix in hard counters when Lopes tries to do his flurries, then get back to space and start all over. Rinse, repeat, retain the title. The biggest thing for Volkanovski in this fight is to limit Lopes’s opportunities for fight-changing offense, because that’s the only way he loses.
Paths to Victory for Diego Lopes at UFC 325
Diego Lopes is an enigma. He’s simultaneously exactly the sort of fighter I’ve always thought could fare the best against Volkanovski — big, athletic, with dynamic finishing ability — while also the best style matchup for him — technically deficient, incredibly limited, not great at adjusting — and we saw both sides of that coin on display in the first fight.
Because Lopes is big and has power, and because Volkanovski is a little older, a little slower, Lopes had moments where he hurt Volk. He then immediately followed those moments up with spastic flailing that Volkanovski simply retreated from or, worse, fired through and won the exchanges. After a few moments, Volkanovski would get his wits back, and then Lopes would once again be looking for a needle in a haystack: a clean punch on his opponent.
The good news for Lopes is that because that first fight went so poorly, there’s plenty he can improve on. And when we’re talking about his level of danger, small improvements can make the difference between a win and a loss.
I think there were two major issues with Lopes’ performance in the first fight (well, three, but I’m not counting “has only one combination — wild hooks”). One of those is an easy fix; the other? Much more difficult.
First, Lopes did not attempt one takedown in his first fight with Volkanovski. Now, Volk is a very good wrestler and grappler, but the literal strength of Lopes’ game is his work on the floor. To abandon that entirely is like sending your siege weapons home right before assaulting a castle. He doesn’t need to spam double-legs, but the total absence of grappling on serves to help Volkanovski.
The second is trickier — Lopes does not have good footwork. Officially, Lopes was “advancing” about half of the fight against Volkanovski, but if you go and watch it, he’s being led around by the nose the entire time. This is not focused, daunting pressure like Ilia Topuria brought to bear on Volk; it’s just chasing him around the cage and getting bopped in the nose for his troubles. In an ideal world, Lopes would have spent a lot of time developing his pressuring footwork, because if he could legitimately back Volk up, he probably wins the fight. At this stage of their careers, Lopes is the more durable and more powerful fighter, so forcing Volk on the back foot and creating exchanges likely leads to victory.
From this point onward, the question with Volkanovski will always be how much does he have left in the tank. 10 months ago, he had enough to survive some scary moments but otherwise thump Lopes. Is that still true now? Can his chin still take big shots and allow him to recover? We’ll see.
The reality is, Diego Lopes has all the tools to beat Alexander Volkanovski, but I’m not sure he has the ability. Outside of two brief moments, the first fight was Volkanovski teaching Lopes a lesson about how to fight, and I saw very little in Lopes’ win over Jean Silva to make me think he’s added something to his game to beat one of the 10 greatest fighters ever.
Could Lopes catch Volk and finish him this time? Sure. That’s always in play. But he had two chances in the first fight and couldn’t do it. How many will he even get this time around, three? Four? Zero? However many it is, I don’t think it’s going to be enough.
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