UFC 322 takes place this Saturday with not one, but two opportunities for decorated champions to jump up and instantly claim gold in another division.
Neither has an easy task ahead.
Islam Makhachev might be MMA’s No. 1 Pound-for-Pound fighter based on his incredible lightweight run, but does that mean he can just jump up to 170 and knock off Jack Della Maddalena? In winning the title, “JDM” took out Belal Muhammad, a training partner of Makhachev’s who shares some of the Dagestani fighter’s characteristics, so is the reigning welterweight champion about to author another upset?
Zhang Weili has been on a collision course with flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko for ages. Now, the stars have aligned for the two indomitable champions to square off in a bout to determine not only the best women’s fighter in MMA today, but arguably of all time.
Everyone should be looking forward to Saturday’s top-2 fights, so it’s with great anticipation that the MMA Fighting crew of Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew tackles the key questions heading into UFC 322.
1. What are the chances of Islam Makhachev and Zhang Weili both becoming ‘champ-champs?’
Lee: Chances? High. Will it happen? No.
I reserve the right to change my mind, but I’ve got Jack Della Maddalena and Valentina Shevchenko keeping their belts heading into 2026. Shevchenko is the more obvious pick, but I think counting Della Maddalena out just because he’s fighting *checks notes* arguably the best fighter on the planet is foolish.
Yes, Della Maddalena’s win over Belal Muhammad is overly coloring my opinion here, and I’m probably drawing too many parallels between Muhammad and his occasional training partner, but I’m also done counting JDM out. He could be a top 3 pound-for-pound guy, and we just don’t know it yet!
And with Shevchenko possibly just outmuscling Zhang, the chances of two new double champions Saturday seem remote.
Heck: I think they’re pretty good, and I’m coming with a pretty hot take considering what I’ve been seeing on the interwebs: I think Zhang Weili’s chances are significantly higher than Islam Makhachev’s.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m picking both to win. But I’m very confident in Zhang becoming double-champ, while there is certainly a world, in my eyes, that Jack Della Maddalena can spoil the party for Makhachev. I’m giving the score a 7.1 out of 10 that we see two “and new” announcements.
Meshew: Well, if you want to get literal about it, the odds are 39.5%. How did I come to that number? By going to our friends and FanDuel and parlaying Makhachev and Zhang together, which results in odds of +153, or 39.5% implied odds.
But if you’re asking for a more vibes-based answer, I’m going with fairly low. I’ve been on the “Islam Makhachev is the best non-Khabib lightweight in the world” train forever at this point, and I will be picking him to win on Saturday, but I have real concerns about it. You never know how a fighter will look in a new weight class until they are there, for one, and for another, Makhachev is sneaky old. He just turned 34, and while that’s not quite “put him out to pasture” age, his fall off could come at any moment at this point. Furthermore, JDM is still on the upswing, so while Saturday could still end up being the best version of Islam we’ve ever seen, it will be the best version of JDM.
And then we still have the Shevchenko-Zhang bout to consider, which, on paper, is the greatest women’s MMA fight ever booked. This is the flyweight GOAT vs. the strawweight GOAT at the relative peak of their powers. All due respect to Cris Cyborg vs. Amanda Nunes, but women’s featherweight is not a real weight class. This is a truly one-in-a-lifetime booking, and people don’t seem to realize that.
Anyway, I have an immense amount of respect for Zhang, and I’m very interested to see how she fares at 125, but this is the hardest possible fight. Shevchenko is on the decline, but she’s still, at worst, the third greatest female fighter ever. Plus, Zhang isn’t a spring chicken either.
While not impossible, it seems unlikely to me that both challengers leave with gold on Saturday. But I bet one does.
2. Which welterweight contender on the card has the most to gain?
Meshew: Is this a trick question? The answer is obviously Islam Makhachev. If Makhachev wins on Saturday, not only does he win the title and become the 11th two-division champion in UFC history, but he also silences some of the few criticisms about his (odd) reign, does something Khabib Nurmagomedov never did, and cements himself as one of the 20 greatest fighters of all time. He has more to gain on this card than any person other than Zhang Weili.
BUT, I guess if you’re talking about the non-title fight, I’ll go with Prates. There are arguments against this being a huge boost for him, but I think those arguments fail to consider the most important part of fight promotion: vibes. Sure, Carlos Prates lost to Ian Machado Garry. But IMG lost to Shavkat Rakhmonov and right now seems ahead of him in the mix. Prates is incredibly over with the fanbase, and a big, sexy KO win over the former champion gets him right in the thick of things for the title conversation again.
Lee: Michael Morales, let’s do this!
I say this in all seriousness: Morales can position himself as the No. 1 contender if he smokes Brady. Now, does that mean he’s guaranteed to fight for the title next year? Ha ha ha ha ha, of course not, silly.
If the UFC was capable of even the slightest promotion when it comes to up-and-coming contenders, Morales would already be touted as the next big thing. Just 26 years old, he’s done nothing but impress since his first octagon appearance in 2022, and he’s made a habit of beating much more experienced competition. There isn’t much more he has to do if he makes it look easy against Brady.
Of course, if Makhachev wins Saturday, you know we’re in for all kinds of matchmaking shenanigans, and that’s going to keep Morales waiting. But I can see him establishing himself as The People’s Champion at UFC 322, and that’s no small thing.
Heck: I’ll tell you who it isn’t: Leon Edwards or Carlos Prates.
Edwards couldn’t be more out of the championship picture right now. But we’re also living in a world where Kamaru Usman could leapfrog all of these contenders who have been putting in the work the past few years after beating Joaquin Buckley for his first win in almost FOUR YEARS, so maybe I’m wrong here. I just don’t think I am. And Prates winning would certainly be a feather in the cap, but it doesn’t mean the same as it did even a year ago.
I’ll go with Sean Brady because he’s taking a huge risk, and the UFC usually rewards guys in Brady’s position who say yes to every name thrown in his direction. If he runs over Michael Morales and calls out the winner, Brady could get that cage-side seat to watch the main event. However, Brady — and, quite frankly, every other welterweight in contention — needs Jack Della Maddalena to beat Islam Makhachev, badly! Otherwise, we’re getting Makhachev vs. Usman, and my head might actually explode.
3. What’s the most intriguing preliminary fight?
Heck: Erin Blanchfield vs. Tracy Cortez 2. I am one of the millions and millions of people who scored their first fight for Blanchfield, but Cortez has come on strong as of late, and a win here could put her in a very good position in the flyweight division.
Blanchfield is obviously talented, but she’s, at least, two to three wins away from getting a title shot — maybe more if Zhang Weili wins, and if Maycee Barber wins at UFC 323, she’s in even more trouble. It’s just the nature of the sport and the organization. If Cortez wins, they will push her to a title fight as fast as possible, although she’ll need a win over one more top-five fighter to get there, and a loss for Blanchfield is catastrophic.
Meshew: I’m going with a dark horse, here. Well, perhaps not a total dark horse, but a deeper cut. The ones who know, know; Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Cody Haddon.
“But Jed! Why would you pick a fight between two men who don’t even have Wikipedia pages?! Are you insane?!”
No, dear reader, I am not. I am the most sane. But you know what is insane? This fight.
By this time, most of you probably remember who Wellmaker is, the former pipefitter-turned-Contender Series signee who has two KOs wins (and two bonuses) this year already. But you may have forgotten about Haddon, who was also on Contender Series in 2024, and won his UFC debut, but has not fought in a year. You’re about to be reminded.
Haddon is 27 and very talented, with his lone career loss coming to Steve Erceg. He doesn’t have the same high-end offense Wellmaker does, but he’s got many more tools, and he’s game. This is a great test for Wellmaker (who was originally getting another showcase bout lined up), and we’re going to learn a lot about both men and their futures in the sport. I’m pumped.
Lee: I still have no clue what to make of Bo Nickal. And I’m not sure the UFC does either.
Jamie Pickett, Val Woodburn, and Cody Brundage all made sense for early Nickal opposition, but Paul Craig seemed like a desperate attempt to get a number next to Nickal’s name, and then throwing him in there with Reinier de Ridder was ill-advised, especially in retrospect. Now he gets Rodolfo Vieira, a grappling specialist whom Nickal should be able to just out-athlete. Maybe?
What’s intriguing to me is that I’m not sure what Nickal even needs to do to rebuild his hype. First-round finish? Convincing three-round win? Mid-match breakdance? It’s not like Vieira is a household name, so a workmanlike win ain’t gonna do it.
There’s plenty of time for Nickal to fulfill his potential, but it also doesn’t take long for a red-hot prospect to go ice cold.
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