UFC 325 predictions | MMA Fighting

January 31, 2026


Alexander Volkanovski looks to turn back the clock once again.

At 37, Volkanovski can become the oldest fighter to successfully defend the UFC featherweight title when he rematches Diego Lopes in Saturday night’s UFC 325 main event at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney. Volkanovski beat Lopes by decision in their first meeting just 10 months ago, raising serious questions about why this fight is even happening, but hey, here we are.

At the very least, the UFC is trotting out a hometown hero for the rabid Australian crowd and as long as Volkanovski doesn’t get smoked in 30 seconds, it should be a fun night. Then again, putting together matchups against the will of the broader fanbase is a classic provocation of The MMA Gods, so if you’re Volkanovski… I’m just saying, watch out for a lightning bolt to strike in the form of a big, mean, Brazilian with a mullet.

Speaking of good times, Saturday’s co-main event throws real-life wolverines Dan Hooker and Benoit Saint Denis in the cage for up to, but likely considerably less than, 15 minutes of concentrated violence. Is Hooker still an elite gatekeeper or is the Saint Denis resurgence for real?

In other main card action, we have two more intriguing lightweight bouts as Rafael Fiziev takes on Mauricio Ruffy and blue-chipper Quillan Salkilld fights short-notice replacement Jamie Mullarkey, plus the return of Tai Tuivasa as he meets Tallison Teixeira in a do-or-die heavyweight matchup.

Where: Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney

When: Saturday, Jan. 31. The four-fight early preliminary card begins at 5 p.m. ET, followed by a four-fight preliminary card at 7 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 9 p.m. ET with the entire event streaming live on Paramount+.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Alexander Volkanovski (1, P4P-8) vs. Diego Lopes (3)

Sorry Diego, I don’t think Alexander Volkanovski loses his battle with Father Time just yet.

It would be incredibly reductive to just say this fight will go exactly the same as the first, but on paper, not much has changed. Volkanovski is a little older, Lopes has one more high-level bout under his belt, and that’s about it.

We know Lopes can catch Volkanovski. He’s quick for his size and he hits hard, and he can utilize the threat of his wrestling to set up his strikes. Certainly, if Lopes can actually take Volkanovski down, he’ll find plenty of opportunities to do damage with ground-and-pound and put Volkanovski’s grappling defense to the test. However, the list of fighters who have managed to control Volkanovski on the mat is short, and I don’t rate Lopes at the level of Islam Makhachev.

So this will be a standup battle, one that Lopes can win with some luck. But even if Lopes gains an early advantage, much of Volkanovski’s career has been defined by his resilience and ability to battle back from adversity. He’ll take a licking, keep on ticking, and win another decision over Lopes at the end of the day.

Dan Hooker (7) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (8)

Dan Hooker would be such a cool underdog to pick if I had any trust in his takedown defense.

Even in victories, Hooker tends to get put on his butt. Typically, he defends well enough to weather the storm and bring the fight back to the feet and he’s certainly capable, but against Benoit Saint Denis, one takedown could be all it takes for the Frenchman to seal the deal. Saint Denis is a bulldozer and he’ll be looking to run through Hooker fast, just as Arman Tsarukyan recently did.

2025 was a bounce-back year for Saint Denis, who recovered from deflating losses to more experienced opponents Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano to record three finishes in six months. He looks the part of a dangerous contender. There are still questions as to which Saint Denis is real, the one that was given a reality check in 2024 or the refocused destroyer that showed up last year. It’s enough to give one pause.

Only for a moment, of course. Saint Denis rushes Hooker down, gets him down, and keeps him down with a flurry of ground-and-pound that forces the referee to step in early.

Rafael Fiziev (T11) vs. Mauricio Ruffy

This main card is pretty damn good, eh? LIGHTWEIGHTS!

Mauricio Ruffy’s rangy and athletic build is sure to cause Rafael Fiziev problems, but fortunately for Fiziev, he’s a master at navigating this kind of opponent. It feels like no matter the discrepancy in measurements, Fiziev always finds a way to control the distance and find an angle for his shots. Unless he’s fighting Justin Gaethje, but that’s a whole other issue.

Both fighters love to throw spinning shit, so you know we’re in for a treat and as sharp as Fiziev always is, there’s absolutely a world where he makes one misstep and catches a 360 heel to the dome that slumps him. I’m confident Fiziev has enough Matrix-like dodges to avoid that fate.

Give me Fiziev via decision in a tense and technical three-round duel.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira

In the battle of the T.T. titans, screw it, I’m going with Tai Tuivasa.

I haven’t lost faith. Admittedly, it’s been so long since I’ve seen Tuivasa win that the concept of him having his hand raised has become abstract in my mind. But he can still slug with the best of them. He has an experience advantage. And you know what? Fighting in his hometown could be just the jolt he needs to turn things around. He hasn’t won a fight since 2022 and he hasn’t won in Australia since 2018, but he’s due!

We know Tallison Teixeira can be hit. We saw that in his loss to Derrick Lewis, an aging veteran who shares a similar style profile with Tuivasa. If Tuivasa throws caution to the wind with the same aplomb, a knockout victory is assured.

Then again, charging headfirst at a literal giant with one-shot KO power could also expedite the removal of Tuivasa’s head from his shoulders and probably put the final nail in the coffin for his UFC career.

I’m sure he’ll be fine.

Quillan Salkilld vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Let’s not beat around the bush here: Jamie Mullarkey isn’t even supposed to be here.

The 12-year veteran is doing the UFC a solid, stepping in on less than a month’s notice for Rongzhu to face countryman Quillan Salkilld. When the bell rings, Mullarkey is expected to walk up to Salkilld, trade a few shots, and then eat canvas. That might sound like a harsh assessment, but when Mullarkey faces athletic strikers, it typically doesn’t go his way, and Salkilld fits that description.

I actually expect Salkilld to impress in a slightly different manner this time around as opposed to his traumatizing knockout of Nasrat Haqparast. He’ll show off the hands, sure, but once he has Mullarkey hurt, he won’t hesitate to go the ground with him where he’ll finish with a choke of his choosing.

Salkilld by club-and-sub.

Billy Elekana def. Junior Tafa

Cameron Rowston def. Cody Brundage

Torrez Finney def. Jacob Malkoun

Oban Elliott def. Jonathan Micallef

Dom Mar Fan def. Sangwook Kim

Sebastian Szalay def. Keiichiro Nakamura

Sulangrangbo def. Lawrence Lui



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