Mexico’s first UFC champion is heading home with a risky challenge ahead of him.
Brandon Moreno headlines UFC Mexico on Saturday and while there was never any question the two-time champion could carry the main event, he was originally lined up against a ranked flyweight in Asu Almabayev. An injury forced Almabayev out, so in steps 26-year-old Lone’er Kavanagh, who recently suffered his first loss in just his third UFC appearance.
For comparison’s sake, Moreno is about to make his 20th walk to the octagon, a record for the 125-pound division.
Skill gap, experience gap, quality of opposition gap, however you want to slice it, Moreno vs. Kavanagh doesn’t make a ton of sense on paper and “The Assassin Baby” should presumably be a big favorite. However, that’s not the case, as Moreno was recently finished for the first time by Tatsuro Taira, so it’s possible the 15-year pro is ripe for the picking.
Kavanagh has everything to gain and nothing to lose by taking on Moreno, who not only faces the pressure of performing in his home country, but the possibility that a loss to an unheralded prospect could remove him from the title picture permanently.
Where: Toyota Center in Houston
When: Saturday, Feb. 28. The seven-fight early preliminary card begins at 5 p.m. ET, followed by a six-fight main card at 8 p.m. ET. The entire event streams live on Paramount+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Brandon Moreno (7) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh
I admit, it’s somewhat of a shame to see a top-tier talent like Lone’er Kavanagh being thrown to the wolves here. That said, fortune favors the bold, and it doesn’t get much bolder than aiming to rebound off of your first-ever loss by taking on one of the five best flyweights ever.
The last time Brandon Moreno faced an unranked flyweight in the UFC was… never? I’m pretty sure even Ryan Benoit had a number next to his name when Moreno fought him in 2016, so Kavanagh is technically the least-decorated opponent Moreno has shared the cage with. I wouldn’t evaluate Kavanagh’s skills lower than some of those past names, but the optics are daunting.
On paper, Kavanagh has all the tools to be a title contender someday. He’s athletic and well-rounded, the definition of a modern MMA fighter. But this is too far a leap up in competition. You can’t compare him to Tatsuro Taira, because Taira had a win over Alex Perez and a hard-fought splitty against Brandon Royval on his résumé before squaring off with Moreno. That’s quality in-cage experience that can’t be manufactured. Kavanagh’s toughest opponent was Charles Johnson, who just knocked him flat.
What I’m saying is this will be Kavanagh’s Royval fight. He’ll come in confident, push Moreno to be at his best, and fight hard before falling short on the cards. There’s no shame in it and the hope is we’ll look back at Kavanagh’s first main event as his first step towards true greatness.
Marlon Vera (11) vs. David Martinez (12)
David Martinez is just a nightmare matchup for Marlon Vera at this stage of his career.
I’m just not entirely sure what the game plan is for “Chito” these days. He could once be relied upon to start slow and pick up late, usually with positive results. Unsurprisingly, time has taken its toll on Vera and he seems more and more reluctant to pull the trigger these days, whether it’s the opening seconds of Round 1 or with time ticking away in the fight. He told our own Mike Heck that he plans to, ahem, “F*ck it, just go” on Saturday, and I really want to believe him.
Even if he does, it might not matter. Martinez is quick, agile, and hits hard. There’s a lot of lateral movement in his game that Vera isn’t equipped to deal with anymore. It’s just going to be Martinez pot-shotting him for 15 minutes and sneaking in a few power shots for good measure.
I don’t see Martinez having enough juice to finish Vera (who does?), but his rise to the top should continue with little trouble.
Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green
We all want Daniel Zellhuber to be a star.
“Golden Boy” has all the makings of a fighter who should stick around the UFC’s lightweight division for years and maybe even contend for a title someday. To put it nicely, he’s lacked consistency. To put it less nicely, his performance against Michael Johnson was extraordinarily discouraging and if it made you doubt his chances of taking his talent to the next level, I don’t blame you.
This is a weird re-do of sorts, with King Green taking Johnson’s place as the MMA lifer putting Zellhuber to the test. Johnson is more high volume than Green, so it’s not an apples to apples comparison, but he does present similar challenges in the striking department. Green’s funky rhythm could afflict Zellhuber with offensive paralysis again, a dreadful thought.
At the very least, Zellhuber needs to show the gusto he had in his losing effort to Esteban Ribovics, because at 26, he’s too young to be constantly second-guessing himself. I’m making my most optimistic pick here and assuming (gulp) Zellhuber learned a lot from the Johnson debacle and never fights that way again.
Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes
It has to be asked: Is Edgar Chairez good?
Chairez’s two UFC losses are to Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira, who just so happen to be meeting in a flyweight championship bout at UFC 327. His two wins? First-round submissions of C.J. Vergara and Daniel Lacerda, two of the worst 125ers to step into the octagon in recent years. Confusing.
When Chairez is on, he cuts the cage off well and can lull his opponents into making mistakes. He has a long jab, which is a great asset to have at 125 pounds, and Bunes’ first job will be to figure out how to get past it. Easier said than done and I expect Chairez to control much of the action with his range striking. That puts the onus on Bunes to create clashes, which again, easier said than done unless he’s willing to take more than one to land one.
So to answer my own question, yeah, Chairez is pretty good. I have him submitting Bunes in the second.
Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas
I like Imanol Rodriguez a lot in this matchup, but Kevin Borjas might have the exact style needed to pull off an upset here.
From the start, Rodriguez will look to make a statement by pressuring Borjas, which plays well into Borjas’ technical, counter-heavy style. We’ll find out fast how much Rodriguez has learned and developed under the tutelage of Daniel Cormier’s team. He’s highly athletic and has already shown signs that he can leverage those gifts into wins.
Look for Rodriguez to start on the feet and mix in a healthy dose of wrestling to force Borjas to engage. There will be a few scary, coin-flip exchanges for sure, but in the end Rodriguez should get the better of Borjas and win a decision.
Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco
The matchmakers are cooking with this one, especially if the plan is to showcase Santiago Luna.
Just 21, it’s too early to tell what we have with Luna as far as him being a future contender, but one thing is for sure: He’s going to put on a ton of fun fights while he’s around. And wouldn’t you know it, the same could be said of Angel Pacheco.
Luna is all gas, no brakes, as you’d expect him to be at this stage of his career. He’s an aggressive wrestler who can also throw hands. Technique and defense still a work in progress, naturally. Fortunately for Luna, he doesn’t have to be Anderson Silva to find Pacheco’s chin, which is often right there for the whacking.
Despite his reckless style, Pacheco has managed to avoid being finished through his first 10 fights, a testament to his toughness and… really, just his toughness. Watching his previous fights, one gets the impression it’s only a matter of time until he runs into an opponent who can not only hurt him, but finish the job.
Ryan Gandra def. Jose Daniel Medina
Macy Chiasson (11) def. Ailin Perez (8)
Cristian Quinonez def. Kris Moutinho
Javier Reyes def. Douglas Silva de Andrade
Regina Tarin def. Ernesta Kareckaite
Francis Marshall def. Erik Silva
Damian Pinas def. Wes Schultz
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